Assessing the Alignment between Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Meteorological Data: Evidence from Agroforestry Systems in Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia

Abstract

The aim of this study is to address how smallholder farmers perceived climate change and the need to analyze the link between local perceptions and climatic data, which is very crucial to design context interventions and policies toward supporting adaptation measures. This study collected data from 384 randomly selected respondents in 18 kebeles over three districts, using focus group discussions, climate data analysis (Mann-Kendall tau test and Sen’s slope), descriptive statistics, and an order logit model. Most respondents reported that climate had changed notably with raised temperatures, declined rainfall, and a delayed rainy season as well as an increased intensity of drought and flood. Climatic patterns confirmed a significant increase in minimum and maximum temperatures during most seasons and years. While rainfall trends exhibited inter-seasonal variability, a significant increase was observed in long wet and autumn periods. Key findings reveal that the link between farmers’ perceptions and climatic patterns revealed strong correlations with temperature changes but some inconsistencies regarding rainfall trends. The order logit model results revealed that the respondents’ farm experience, educational level, livestock ownership, exposure to crop failure, total income, access to climate change information, and farmland fertility have significantly influenced their perceptions. Focusing interventions on these socio-demographic, institutional, and risk exposure variables will positively enhance farmers’ perceptions of climate change, which, in turn, can contribute to enhanced ecological resilience to climate change.